Well we’re almost done folks, Richmond is this weekend. It’s Race Weekend, with multiple people around the industry saying that nothing around the sport other then the racing stopped. Factory work was still going on, Cars we’re still being built, It was a busy Olympic Break for most teams, more especially for the bubble drivers, which we will break down today and also go over their chances at getting a win over the next 4 races.

So first off we will break down the Top 20 in points currently, so you as the reader has a better understanding on how the season is going, whether you’ve watched all the races or haven’t watched a single one. (Later we will break down the playoff standings since those are a bit different then the regular points standings)

1st: Kyle Larson 749 Points, and 4 wins.

2nd: Chase Elliott 739 Points and 1 win.

3rd: Tyler Reddick 734 Points and 1 win.

4th: Denny Hamlin 706 Points and 3 wins.

5th: Ryan Blaney 676 Points and 2 wins.

6th: William Byron 654 Points and 3 wins.

7th: Martin Truex Jr 653 Points and 0 wins.

8th: Christopher Bell 651 Points and 3 wins.

9th: Brad Keselowski 615 Points and 1 win.

10th: Alex Bowman 606 Points and 1 win.

11th: Ty Gibbs 587 Points and 0 wins.

12th: Chris Buescher 562 Points and 0 wins.

13th: Ross Chastain 552 Points and 0 wins.

14th: Bubba Wallace 545 Points and 0 wins.

15th: Joey Logano 525 Points and 1 win.

16th: Chase Briscoe 469 Points and 0 wins.

Cutoff

17th: Daniel Suarez 460 Points and 1 win (Locked in playoffs)

18th: Kyle Busch 440 Points and 0 wins

19th: Austin Cindric 438 Points and 1 win (Locked in playoffs)

20th: Todd Gilliand 434 Points and 0 wins

So realistically with 4 spots left in the playoffs regardless of points, since wins matter in this format. Drivers like Ty Gibbs, Chris Buescher, Ross Chastain and Bubba Wallace all fighting for those last 4 spots, the question is with 4 races left in the regular season, will drivers like Denny Hamlin win a race or two to make his name noticed in the regular season championship battle or will driver like Kyle Larson walk away with the wins? Or can we get a surprise winner at the next upcoming 4 races (Richmond, Michigan, Daytona and Darlington) We will break down the bubble drivers and who will make the top 16 for the playoffs and who will fall short.

Bubba Wallace: Regardless of points, Suarez and Cindric are automatically locked into the playoffs, which leaves four spots open. If the playoffs we’re to start today, Truex Jr, Ty Gibbs, Chris Buescher and Ross Chastain would make it in on points. While Bubba Wallace would miss out on the cut by only 7 points, with a bigger gap towards the back with Briscoe being behind -83 points and Kyle Busch being behind 112 points.

Wallace’s Crew Chief was on Sirius XM yesterday afternoon and said that there really isn’t a sense of nervousness in the garage, as the 23 car has found some serious speed since his New Hampshire DNF, he finished 7th the week after in Nashville, then 13th at the Street Course in Chicago, and then another top 10 in Pocono, and followed that up with a 5th place finish at the Brickyard.

Baker said that as long as they keep doing what they have been doing then they can see themselves making the playoffs and even being able to get a win here in the next 4 races. So let’s go over Bubba’s chances at the next 4 races.

Richmond: With a career best finish of 12th at Richmond (twice) Bubba will just wanna stay ahead and do his best to get some stage points, it’s not like it’s his worse track as in the 2nd 2023 race, he was able to finish in the Top 10 for both stages, as well as the first race this season (2024) Bubba’s chances this weekend at Richmond aren’t zero but they also aren’t the best either. Keep an eye out for how they unload and how practice goes for them.

Michigan: Ranking 8th in Bubba’s best tracks (stat wise) i can see Michigan being a strong chance at a win here, with last year’s race, Bubba was able to lead 21 laps and in the previous year, he led 22. He obviously knows how to get to the front here in Michigan, the question is, will he be able to stay up there, when you have the Hendrick cars and the Joe Gibbs cars, and those bubble drivers who desperately need a win to get in. But with Bubba finishing in 2nd and 4th in the stages last season at Michigan, look for the 23 team to capitalize on points as much as they can, and if a opportunity for a win ends up falling on their lap, they will do everything to capitalize on it.

Daytona: Ranking 3rd best in Bubba’s tracks with a career average finish of a 9.9, it seems like Bubba is just always there battling for the win towards the end of these restrictor plate races, Bubba is a damn good speedway racer. The stats back me up too, out of recent drivers, Bubba Wallace ranks first on the list at Daytona for drivers with more then 2 races there, with 5 Top 5’s, 5 Top 10’s, and 13 Top 20’s in his 14 races at Daytona. For reference, Denny Hamlin has a career average on 17.1 and ranks third. But there’s one stat that Bubba Wallace hasn’t been able to put his name into, and that’s the win column. I know Daytona is realistically just a be there in the right time and you win but Bubba has always been close to being there. Can this be the time that Bubba finds Victory Lane at Daytona? Ever since he moves to 23XI racing, he has only not scored stage points in one race at Daytona, and that was a result of a early crash in 2023. So Bubba’s chances at Daytona are extremely high, if he’s able to keep the nose clean, and take some pointers from boss man, Denny Hamlin, i can see Bubba Wallace being a huge threat going into Daytona.

Darlington: Ranking 7th best in Bubba’s best finishes among tracks he’s raced at in the Cup Series, with a average of 13.9 in the last 7 races. If Bubba doesn’t get that win in Richmond, Michigan or Daytona. You shouldn’t count him out here at Darlington. The Toyota’s are always extremely fast at Darlington and with a scenario of MTJ already clinching his spot in the playoffs by the time Darlington comes around, i can see Bubba Wallace being able to have a strong day in the points with in the last 4 of 5 races at Richmond, he’s scored stage points at. Lead some more laps at a track he’s led very little at, and clinch the playoffs either on points or with a race win. But i don’t think this is his worse chance at a win, as this is pretty much right in the middle of his best and worse tracks.

Other then Richmond where Bubba will just wanna have a solid day in that fast Toyota and get his first Top 10 at Richmond, i personally feel like his best chance at a win will come after the Richmond Race, especially if he runs well at Michigan, i can genuinely seeing him getting the win in Daytona if Baker plays the cards right in pit road and Bubba can do his best to stay out of trouble when the big one strikes. Either way Bubba is going to some of his strongest tracks after Richmond, as long as he’s able to score some stage points this weekend, i can 100% see him making the playoffs and knocking off a driver like Ross Chastain or Chris Buescher if they have a disappointing day outside of the Top 20.

Chase Briscoe: Chase Briscoe isn’t as far away in the points as Kyle Busch is but he for sure has a significant gap being behind -83 points. In Stewart Hass’s last season, Briscoe will obviously wanna do everything in his power to get a win on the board because that’s what he needs. Chase Briscoe has one career win and that came in Phoenix in 2022. Chase Briscoe hasn’t seen Victory Lane since but he has had 14 Top 10’s since then. Chase Briscoe isn’t going to his worse tracks as all the tracks rank in his Top 20, his best chance at a win will come at Richmond or Darlington as he averages a combined average of 16.2 at those tracks. Chase Briscoe is definitely a longshot in this battle for a win, but in Stewart Hass’s last season, anything is possible.

Kyle Busch: Being -112 Points out of the playoffs, it’s obvious either, A. Kyle Busch needs a miracle and needs all the bubble drivers ahead of him to have the worse 4 weeks of racing they’ve had or Kyle Busch can do his absolute best to try to go win the that Number 8. But if there’s one thing i’ve learned about Kyle Busch is don’t count him out, because just when you think he can’t do something, he goes out and does it 10x better then you and i could have even imagined. But this might be Kyle Busch’s hardest task yet. This is looking to be Kyle Busch’s worse season since his Rookie 2005 campaign. Busch hasn’t ever not won a race in a season, but with a average finish of 19.7, it seems like the streak could very well be over. Busch has 2 Top 5’s this season and will just be looking to add on to his amazing streak of getting a win of every season he’s raced in NASCAR. Personally i think his best shot at a win will come this weekend in Richmond, as that is his most successful track out of Michigan, Daytona and Darlington which all rank under 13th in Kyle Busch’s best tracks.

Bubble Drivers without a win: First off, Martin Truex Jr isn’t officially clinched yet, but with a good weekend this week at Richmond and then at Michigan, i see the 19 team being locked in by the time Daytona comes around if he doesn’t walk away with the win. So now let’s go over the 3 drivers that are under him.

Ty Gibbs is +42 above the cutline but that just means he’s one DNF away from going +42, to looking into the playoffs in 17th. Ty Gibbs hasn’t seen victory lane just yet in the Cup Series but with a career average finish of 18.3 with 20 Top 10’s, it’s only a matter of time before this young kid finds victory lane and models into the driver that Joe Gibbs know he can be. Look out for Gibbs to be a contender for the win in either Darlington (1 Top 5) or Michigan (average finish of 10.5 in 2 races) Gibbs will definitely wanna do things the easy way and just win and lock himself in. And with some of the best equipment in NASCAR, look for him to be aggressive in these final 4 weeks leading up into the playoffs.

Chris Buescher sits 15th currently in the standings with a 17 point cushion. Which isn’t anything to be comfortable with. If Bubba Wallace can win one stage, and third in the next, and Buescher didn’t score a single stage point, and Bubba finished 20th and Buescher 21st, Buescher would be one point out of the playoffs. So they will also just wanna do things the easy way and win just like Team Owner Brad Keselowski did earlier in the season to lock himself in. Buescher was super close earlier in the season but ended up getting tangled with Reddick in the final laps and didn’t win the race. Buescher will need stage points and solid finishes these next 4 weeks if he wants to stay ahead of Bubba Wallace and be the 2nd RFK car in the playoffs to make their chance at winning their first team title in team’s history.

Ross Chastain has completed a miracle before, you might remember it when he rode the wall in Martinsville to clinch his spot in the Final 4 in Phoenix passing Denny Hamlin in the final turn. He obviously knows what needs to be done if his back is towards the wall, so don’t count him out, to do the absolute unthinkable to make the playoffs. He’s currently 7 points to the good but with the Buescher situation, Bubba needs just one stage win and Chastain not to score and he’d be in on points. So Chastain is in a position where every single point matters and if a win is just a couple of feet away, i also don’t see him wrecking someone to lock himself in and worry about consequences later. The next 4 weeks aren’t Chastain’s strongest tracks but the best out of the 4 is Richmond, so look for them to capitalize on points as much as they can that day, and make a risky call here and there to put themselves in position for the race win

This is the end of the story.

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