It’s been over 4 weeks since Mercedes and Hamilton closed out the first half of the season with a huge win. Teams later that week then shut down the factories, sent the employees on holiday/vacation. Drivers enjoyed their time off. But vacation time is over. It’s time to strap in, and get ready for the 2nd half of the season. The first half of the season was already amazing with Ferrari, Mercedes, Mclaren and Red Bull all seeing the top step of the podium. This is the season that Red Bull have looked the most vulnerable since the 2021 season.

This weekend is a regular weekend so no sprint race or anything like that. Just 3 practice sessions, 1 qualifying session and one race. Exactly how it should be.

Friday shows relatively small chances for rain as their is only a 20% chance for rain around the track for both practice sessions. Clouds should stick around throughout the day with the sun peeking through for the beginning of FP2 but the clouds should come back for full coverage around the track by the end of the second session.

Saturday shows a whole complete different scenario with pole/1st place being anybody’s at this point. 60% chance of rain for both session as rain is forecasted throughout both sessions. It will be interesting to see which teams opt in for a dry set-up to look forward to Sunday but qualifying not so well. Or using a wet setup, getting a solid starting position and do your best to stay ahead. F1 rules don’t allow for teams to change anything with the car after qualifying regarding the setup (For example, the gear timing, the suspension, the brakes, etc. If teams change any of that, they violate the Parc Ferme rules and are forced to start the race from the pit lane)

Sunday has a 0% chance of rain, at the time of this article being written. So like i said earlier, it will be interesting to see what teams do on Saturday with their setups to look forward to Sunday. It’s two complete different weather patterns. It’s looking like it should be partly cloudy, but don’t count out rain. It seems like rain has followed F1 around everywhere they have gone this season.

Verstappen has swept the previous 3 races at Zandvorrt since F1 has made it’s return back to the Dutch track in 2021. It was supposed to be in 2020 but COVID ultimately forced the cancellation of the race. The last race before 2021 was in 1985. Niki Lauda walked away with the win that day and that was the last time Zandvorrt was seen. The Contract was never renewed and F1 never raced their again. All the way from 1986 to 2019, when the contract got renewed.

Big storylines to look out for this weekend.

• Ferrari is bringing a big new upgrade this weekend with a new floor being the main talk of the weekend. Ferrari is looking to stop the problem their drivers are reporting of bouncing in the car. Ferrari sits 21 points behind Mclaren for 2nd place as Ferrari’s last win was in Monaco with Charles Leclerc taking the win at his home track.
• Verstappen since Zandvorrt has been added to the schedule he has won every single race. Making it 3 straight victories for Verstappen at the Dutch GP. If Verstappen we’re to get the win this weekend, then he will tie Jim Clark for the most wins at Zandvorrt. This might be Verstappen’s hardest race to do it at as he will have the Mercedes, Mclaren and the Ferrari breathing down their neck looking to capitalize on any mistake Verstappen might make.
• Zandvorrt is one of the shortest tracks on the circuit but also super unique with high banking making it look like a NASCAR track, entering turn 3 and the final turn being completely banked. It is a 72 lap race, and with a dry track. We will see some interesting strategies here as we always do.
• Mclaren is looking to have a big weekend with Ferrari breathing down their necks for that 2nd place position in the constructor’s standings.
• Red Bull over the summer break surprised everyone and let it be known publicly that Perez is their guy and he will finish the season with Red Bull. Perez will absolutely need to turn his season around and have a amazing 2nd half of the season or else, in 2025 his seat might be someone else’s. Red Bull also promised in the meeting between them and Perez that they will do everything to make the car more drivable for Perez. So it’s now all in Perez’s hands to deliver solid finishes for Red Bull

Tyre Strategy:

Pirelli’s tyre report isn’t out yet but with the weather being very similar to how it was last season, it’s safe to say they will bring the same tyre allocation as the did last season. So let’s talk about the different strategies that teams may attempt. For the new F1 Fans, teams need to change tires at least once during a race if it’s dry and if it’s wet, it it not mandatory to stop. Which we saw Esteban Ocon do in the Turkish Grand Prix. So there’s 5 different tires in total. 3 dry tires, which are the soft, medium and hard. Soft tires give you the most amount of grip at the start and speed but degrade faster. Hard tires take a while to break in but give you the longest lasting tire in a long run. And the Medium tire is the best of both world’s being right in the middle of both. Now it’s time to talk about the 4 different strategies that teams might use this weekend. This image is courtesy of Pirelli themselves.

I think everyone in the Top 6 opt in for the Soft/Hard tire setup as that can just settle them in, and if worse case scenario, a safety car comes in the final 15-20 laps, those Top 6 teams can come in, hopefully get a free pit stop and throw on some softs till the end.

I think everyone else opts in for the two stopper to find the most speed to make up ground. Teams outside of the Top 6 will just wanna stay in the Top 10 for points, and with everyone hungrier then ever for points, it will be a intense mid pack battle this weekend.

Betting Odds

If you’re looking to make some money this weekend, i’m gonna give you some potential picks for some wins so you can make some money. These odds are off of Draft Kings at the writing of this article so remember, the odds you see on this article, might not be the same when you look.

Max Verstappen: +165

Max Verstappen’s name alone shows why he should get your pick but at a +165, i really like Verstappen’s odds. He’s usually at a minus most weekends but since Red Bull has been super vulnerable, he finally is at plus money. Verstappen has won the past 3 races at the Dutch GP so this one is obvious.

Lando Norris: +175

Norris coming off some disappointing performances not being able to convert a win. Norris is looking to come into the second half swinging and win his second race of his career and i think he has a pretty good chance at doing it this weekend. Norris odds for a Top 2 and 4 finish are minus money so there’s really only money to be made on his race win unless you’re betting thousands.

Charles Leclerc: +2000 , Top 2 Finish +1400 , Top 4 Finish +120

Keep an eye out for Ferrari’s performance this weekend as they are bringing a new upgrade to counter their bouncing issues but if those go how Ferrari is hoping, then i can see Leclerc battling for a win. And at a +2000 , he can for sure do it if the car is capable, he may seem like a bit of a long shot so i put down his other odds that DK allow you to bet on, if i had to offer any advice, if you don’t trust Leclerc to provide a win, lock him in for a Top 4 finish. Solid odds for something that Leclerc can do even if the upgrades don’t do what they are supposed to.

Sergio Perez: +3500

If the car is to how Red Bull said it would be, and make it more drivable for Perez, i think Perez battles for the win. He’s tired of hearing everyone say that he isn’t fit for the second seat. And i think he has a solid chance at doing it if the car is to his liking. He is at a +225 for the Top 4 loss if you’re feeling the same way about Perez as you are Leclerc.

Longshot Bets

Pierre Gasly Top 4 +10000

Gasly was able to get a podium here last season for Alpine. I’m not saying run to draft kings and put your mortgage on Gasly. But i am saying, if you have 5$ laying around, and are feeling risky this weekend, you can turn 5$ into 500$ so why not.

Fernando Alonso Win +25000

Same scenario with Gasly. He battled in the front last season with Verstappen for a bit before Verstappen pulled away but he showed he can run up front here. If something absolutely crazy happens at the race start, and Alonso stays clean. Keep an eye out for this bet. Why not turn 5$ into 1,255$ on an easy Sunday morning?

This is the end of the story.

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