We are just under 24 hours away from Black Monday. If you’re not familiar with the term, it’s the day following the final games of the regular season and for some teams, it marks the first real day of the unofficial offseason. This is also the day where most organizations inform their head coaches whether or not they’ll be returning next season.

Bear Sports News has gathered information from around the league on which head coaches are likely on the hot seat and which ones are expected to earn another year on the sidelines.

Mike Tomlin – Pittsburgh Steelers

Despite yet another winning season, there’s a larger issue hovering over the Steelers organization. Mike Tomlin and Pittsburgh have not won a playoff game since 2016, with four Wild Card exits in the last five seasons. That reality has become increasingly difficult for ownership to ignore.

The situation is complicated. Tomlin consistently does just enough to keep the Steelers competitive, which usually results in a mid first-round draft pick. That puts the franchise in an awkward position, either overpaying to trade up in the draft or continuing to run it back with a ceiling that fans feel has already been reached.

A straight-up firing of Mike Tomlin still feels very unlikely. However, a “mutual agreement” to part ways is something that has been mentioned more than once around the league. If that happens, Tomlin could very well step into a broadcasting role for a short reset before eventually returning to the NFL as a head coach.

From Pittsburgh’s perspective, the cleanest option would be trading Tomlin. The problem is that he holds a full no-trade clause in his contract, and the market for head coaches is very different than it once was.

Sources have also indicated that the Steelers have had internal discussions about a future without Tomlin. One name that has surfaced is Notre Dame head coach Marcus Freeman. Earlier this year, Freeman shut down any possibility of jumping to the NFL despite interest from multiple teams, ultimately deciding to remain in South Bend.

It’s also important to note that Tomlin still has one year remaining on his contract. If a firing or mutual parting does happen, a buyout would be involved. The question ownership now faces is simple but heavy: do they allow Tomlin to finish what he started, or do they cut the Tomlin era short?

As of now, it’s more likely than not that Tomlin remains in Pittsburgh, but he is a name that continues to be brought up frequently by fans.

Todd Bowles – Tampa Bay Buccaneers

It’s unlikely that the Buccaneers fire or part ways with Todd Bowles, but changes around him appear inevitable. Tampa Bay handled business on Saturday with a win over the Panthers, but needed the Saints to beat the Falcons in order to sneak into the playoffs. That didn’t happen, resulting in the Panthers clinching the division as the fourth seed and the Bucs being eliminated.

This outcome was not what Tampa Bay fans had in mind, especially considering the team was 6-2 heading into the bye week. The second half of the season quickly unraveled and turned into a disaster.

Despite the collapse, the 62-year-old Bowles is expected to stay put. He signed an extension last season, and firing him this quickly would come as a surprise. Insiders have also said the organization would be hesitant to pay out his buyout. A full evaluation of every position is expected now that the season has wrapped up.

While Bowles is likely safe, offensive coordinator Josh Grizzard may not be. The first-year coordinator has been heavily criticized for the team’s offensive regression. Last season, Tampa Bay finished top five in scoring, total yards, passing yards, and rushing yards. This season, those rankings dropped to 15th in scoring, 14th in total yards, 17th in passing yards, and 15th in rushing yards.

Some of that decline can be attributed to injuries on offense, but fans and insiders alike have pointed to Grizzard’s play-calling as a major factor in the team’s fall from 6-2 to out of the playoffs.

Shane Steichen – Indianapolis Colts

The Indianapolis Colts announced earlier today that both Shane Steichen and general manager Chris Ballard will be retained. While changes around the sidelines or front office could still happen, ownership made it clear that Steichen and Ballard will remain in their roles.

Owner Carlie Irsay-Gordon expressed optimism that better health next season will lead to better results. The Colts were hit hard by injuries, particularly on defense and in the secondary. Quarterback Daniel Jones also played through a fractured fibula before eventually tearing his Achilles.

Irsay-Gordon reiterated that Ballard will continue “seeing out the vision” he began last spring, signaling patience from ownership despite another disappointing year.

Kevin Stefanski – Cleveland Browns

There is a growing belief around the league that Kevin Stefanski has coached his final game for the Cleveland Browns. A separation appears imminent, as the organization was already leaning toward a change before today’s win over the Bengals.

Cleveland could attempt to explore trade options, but if that fails, a mutual agreement between both sides is very much on the table. The New York Giants have already been linked to Stefanski if and when he becomes available.

The Browns have reportedly held internal discussions regarding Stefanski’s replacement, with the possibility of promoting from within. Defensive coordinator Jim Schwartz is expected to emerge as a strong candidate. Myles Garrett recently spoke highly of Schwartz and made it clear he would welcome continuing to play under him.

“Would I like to play under Jim? Would I like to keep the team and for us to improve? Absolutely,” Garrett said.

John Harbaugh – Baltimore Ravens

Even before the Ravens took the field against the Steelers, the organization and John Harbaugh were planning to sit down and discuss the future. After the loss to Pittsburgh and a playoff elimination, those conversations now carry even more weight.

A Black Monday firing remains unlikely, especially with discussions already scheduled. That said, it would not be surprising if Harbaugh has coached his final game in Baltimore. His name is one that deserves closer attention as the league heads into a pivotal offseason.

Pete Carroll – Las Vegas Raiders

What was supposed to be a cultural reset in Vegas has instead turned into one of the worst seasons we’ve seen in recent memory. Pete Carroll, the legendary former Seahawks coach, was brought in to stabilize the Raiders and make them competitive again. Instead, Las Vegas finds itself on track for the league’s worst record, and Carroll’s future in Sin City is now very much in doubt. 

After just one season in Las Vegas, sources now expect Carroll to be one-and-done. Whether that ends up in a firing or a retirement. Reports indicate that the Raiders plan to dismiss Carroll following Week 18, with both outcomes being discussed internally. Regardless of how it happens, a head coaching change appears imminent. 

Vegas’s offense never found traction all year, culminating in multiple staff shakeups, including the firing of offensive coordinator Chip Kelly midseason. The result was a disastrous campaign that saw the Raiders lose 14 games and ultimately secure the No. 1 overall pick in the 2026 NFL Draft, their first since 2007. 

Owner Mark Davis has not publicly stated his final decision, but multiple reports have Carroll’s tenure ending this offseason. The decision could come as early as Black Monday, marking yet another coaching change for a franchise that has struggled to find stability. The Raiders are expected to cast a wide net in the upcoming search, with Tom Brady reportedly playing a key advisory role in evaluating head coaching and quarterback options. 

At 74 years old and coming off a season that fell far short of expectations, Carroll’s one-year stint in Vegas might be drawing to a close. Whether that’s via firing or his own choice to walk away.  

Raheem Morris – Atlanta Falcons

The Falcons did not wait for Black Monday to make moves. The Falcons fired both head coach Raheem Morris and general manager Terry Fontenot just hours after their season ended. Atlanta wrapped up with an 8–9 record, finishing with a four-game winning streak, but it wasn’t enough to save either man’s job. Owner Arthur Blank made it clear the organization needs new leadership after back-to-back disappointing seasons and another year out of the playoffs. 

Morris, who was hired in 2024 and finished 16–18 over two seasons, couldn’t get the Falcons over the hump. Despite ending the year strong, the team missed the playoffs again. Extending Atlanta’s drought to eight straight seasons without postseason football. 

Fontenot’s dismissal alongside Morris signals a full reset for the Falcons. The franchise will begin a concurrent search for both the next head coach and GM, with outside firms already engaged to help. 

Atlanta now enters a true rebuild phase, with a solid young core but no playoff wins in sight under the recent regime. The question becomes: who will be the voice that finally leads the Falcons back to relevance? That answer will start taking shape soon. 

Jonathan Gannon – Arizona Cardinals

After a season full of ups and downs in the desert, the Arizona Cardinals are likely to keep Jonathan Gannon as their head coach heading into next season. Despite a disappointing record and missing the playoffs, ownership appears inclined to give Gannon another year rather than make a dramatic switch at the top. 

One major storyline this season was the absence and future of quarterback Kyler Murray. Murray missed the majority of the campaign due to a lingering foot injury and was ultimately shut down for the year, leaving backup Jacoby Brissett to take over under center.  That situation added to the narrative around Gannon’s job security, since the offense never truly found its footing with, or without, Murray in the lineup.

Murray’s future in Arizona is now very much in question. The Cardinals may need to eat salary to create a trade market for the former No. 1 overall pick, and team decision-makers will likely evaluate whether he fits into their long-term plans before the new league year begins. 

Despite the chaos, Gannon and Cardinals leadership have been consistent in publicly supporting Murray when he’s healthy, and parting ways with him isn’t a foregone conclusion, at least not yet. However, the team’s handling of his injury, uncertain timeline, and potential offseason decisions all factor into how Arizona moves forward. 

Instead of a Black Monday firing, Arizona is expected to enter the offseason with Gannon’s staff largely intact and a focus on improving around the quarterback position, whether that’s Murray returning or the Cardinals pivoting elsewhere. 

Zac Taylor – Cincinnati Bengals

As the Bengals head into Black Monday, the talk around Zac Taylor’s job security is surprisingly calm, well at least compared to some other head coaching situations. Despite another season without a playoff appearance, multiple league insiders now believe Taylor will be retained for the 2026 campaign. 

Taylor has been with Cincinnati since 2019 and put together the most successful stretch the franchise has seen in decades, including a Super Bowl appearance and AFC Championship Game berth earlier in his tenure. While the Bengals have now missed the postseason three straight seasons, it’s clear that ownership values continuity more than hitting reset. 

A big reason Taylor appears safe is Joe Burrow’s public support. Burrow has made it known he expects to be part of the 2026 Bengals and hasn’t wavered from backing Taylor, even as the club struggled this year and he himself battled injuries. Sources report Burrow’s endorsement carries real weight in Cincinnati’s decision-making. 

That said, there is mounting frustration in Bengals circles. The team finished 6–11 and closed the season with a loss to the Browns that highlighted inconsistent offensive execution and lingering defensive woes. Fans and some analysts argue that this should be the end of the Taylor era, pointing to repeated playoff misses and slow starts as signs that leadership needs reshaping. 

But the reality remains: Taylor is under contract, ownership has shown loyalty in the past, and Cincinnati historically doesn’t fire coaches lightly, especially ones who brought them to rare heights. Add in Burrow’s support and a core that still features elite offensive talent, and it’s looking like Taylor will be back in the huddle next fall. 

Whether that continuity turns into a playoff breakthrough or leads to a louder “next year” narrative remains the big offseason question for Bengals fans.

Mike McDaniel – Miami Dolphins

The Miami Dolphins closed their 2025 season with a brutal 38–10 loss to the New England Patriots, a game that only seemed to underline just how messy things have gotten in South Beach as Black Monday approaches. 

Miami’s season was a roller coaster. After a 1–6 start, they rallied to win five of seven and keep faint playoff hopes alive, but ultimately missed the postseason for a second straight year, finishing 7–10. 

That inconsistency has put head coach Mike McDaniel’s future firmly in the rumor mill. Earlier in the year, it looked like McDaniel might salvage his job with that midseason turnaround, but recent developments including the embarrassing Week 18 loss have put his job squarely in doubt. 

Ownership already made a splash this offseason by parting ways with longtime GM Chris Grier and bringing in Troy Aikman as a consultant to help lead the GM search, a move that could have implications for McDaniel’s status.  Aikman’s public criticism of McDaniel’s game management earlier in the season only added fuel to the fire. 

Some insiders still believe Dolphins owner Stephen Ross likes McDaniel and would consider keeping him, especially if a new GM comes in with a relationship or belief in what McDaniel has built. Others argue that missing the playoffs again and failing to solve obvious defensive and offensive issues may outweigh the late-season rally. 

There’s even been chatter that McDaniel’s name could pop up elsewhere if Miami does move on, with several teams reportedly interested in his offensive mind. 

The biggest thing working in McDaniel’s favor is that there’s no clear replacement right now, and Ross has shown patience before. But the combination of Miami’s uneven offense, defensive struggles, and this ugly finish has shifted the narrative, and McDaniel could have very well coached his final game in a Dolphins uniform as we head into Black Monday.